李连杰

大的要来了，泽连斯基当不成总统了？4大丑闻集中爆发，美国不救,老实人老实,原创大的要来了，泽连斯基当不成总统了？4大丑闻集中爆发，美国不救_我的网站

金粉世家

一 | Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has ordered the state’s National Guard to install a barrier in some parts along the Texas/New Mexico state line. Officials say guard members have been placing concertina wire in an area close to Sunland Park, New Mexico, which shares a border with El Paso, Texas.Footage shot by KVIA shows some of the fencing running along the Rio Grande.ABC News has reached out to Texas officials, who have not yet provided an estimate of how much fencing is being installed.Abbott says the barrier is meant to deter migrants who cross from Mexico into New Mexico before heading to El Paso.“Texas installs fencing along NEW Mexico border. Our barriers around El Paso forced the migrants crossing illegally to enter into New Mexico. They then entered into El Paso from there. To end that, we are building a barrier on the New Mexico border,” the governor posted Sunday on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.In a statement given to ABC News, the Texas Military Department (TMD) said the Texas National Guard is “fortifying” the border between the two states.“The Texas National Guard has heavily fortified the border in El Paso with 18 miles of concertina wire. We are now fortifying the border between Texas and New Mexico to block migrants who are entering New Mexico illegally and then crossing into Texas. The effort in El Paso was bolstered by the recent deployment of the Texas Tactical Border Force to El Paso. The Texas National Guard remains focused on operations to prevent, deter, and interdict transnational criminal activity and illegal immigration along the border,” the TMD public affairs office said.A spokesperson for New Mexico Rep. Gabe Vasquez says state officials were not warned about the governor’s plans.A statement given to ABC News by Vasquez said, in part, that the barrier is unconstitutional.“However, this is one of the many political stunts that the Texas governor has cooked up to demonize immigrants and that provides no real long-term solution to the crisis that we're facing. Governor Abbott has done this before. He has put up an illegal border wall with shipping containers, then he conned migrants into taking buses to other states without their clear consent, then he put up a death trap on the Rio Grande that drowned innocent migrants seeking asylum, and now, his latest stunt is putting up a barrier between Texas and New Mexico,” Vasquez said.Abbott is facing an ongoing lawsuit over his decision to install a floating barrier in the Rio Grande on the U.S. and Mexico border. The state is arguing that they did not need permission from the federal government to install buoys along a 1,000-foot stretch of the Rio Grande in Eagle Pass, Texas.The governor’s office has not responded to an ABC News inquiry about whether Texas officials discussed Abbott's plans with their New Mexico counterparts.The Texas Military Department, Department of Public Safety, and the governor’s office did not answer when asked how much of the planned 18-miles-long wire fencing has been placed and if more is planned.“The state stands ready to assist as requested by federal or local partners to ensure individuals are treated with compassion and respect while maintaining public safety. We encourage Gov. Abbott to turn his attention away from a never-ending stream of political stunts and toward working in earnest for the people of the state he was elected to represent,” said Caroline Sweeney, a spokesperson for New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham.In a joint statement, the Democratic Party chairs of both Texas and New Mexico called for the barrier to be removed. “Shame on Greg Abbott for using public tax dollars to uplift his dangerous approach to border security, and infringing upon Texans’ and New Mexicans’ right to move freely across state lines. Texas and New Mexico Democrats condemn Abbott’s razor wire fencing along our state borders, and call for its removal effective immediately,” their statement read in part.At an event hosted last month by the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank, Abbott said that even if Texas was able to stop all unlawful entries through the Texas-Mexico border, some would still be coming in from New Mexico.“Not only are we building border barriers between the border of Texas and Mexico, we're also having now to build border barriers between Texas and New Mexico,” he said.。最近，乌克兰国内爆发了多起丑闻，其中三件与征兵办有关。在利沃夫，一名25岁男子在兵役文件核查现场持刀攻击征兵工作人员，致对方死亡；一段公开视频显示，征兵人员在街头强行带走适龄男子，一名女子跪地哀求其放过自己的丈夫；另一起事件中，征兵人员在街头控制了一名青年，随即遭到现场群众阻拦，该青年最终被众人救走。

二 | 与此同时，此前被解除职务的前国防部长费多罗夫公开发布视频，不仅曝光政府内部存在的腐败问题，还公开“逼宫”泽连斯基总统，呼吁在战时状态下启动总统选举程序。

三 | 很多人看过新闻后，简单将其归结为个体拒绝服役。如果只停留在这个层面，就会忽略背后已积累的社会情绪。事实上，俄乌冲突爆发之前，乌克兰多地已出现民众与征兵人员对峙的情况。卡缅斯科耶的视频记录了女子跪地哀求的一幕，网络上也流传着“交钱可免征召”的说法，当地执法机构已对此启动调查。此外，还有街头民众集体阻拦、合力将被带走的男子抢回的事件。

四 | 这一系列冲突接连出现，其根源是否仅限于民众对战场伤亡的恐惧？前线持续存在巨大的人员轮换缺口，志愿参军人数不断走低，地方只能依赖街头核查与上门传唤来完成征兵指标。部分基层执行环节程序不规范，不同群体面对征召时执行尺度不一，相关投诉数量逐年攀升。当普通民众看到有关系、有财力的人可以规避征召，而普通家庭的青年却在街头被随机带走，整个动员制度的公信力便会在无形中被逐渐消耗。当然，不能把所有暴力对抗全部合理化。无论有什么样的现实委屈，持刀伤人剥夺他人生命，都要承担对应的法律后果。被袭击的征兵岗位人员，不少也是从前线轮换下来，因为身体条件无法继续作战，才转到后方从事文书核查工作。征兵矛盾的复杂之处就在这里，前线巨大兵员缺口是客观现实，但基层执行失序、公平性缺失，又在放大民间抵触情绪。即便当前已出现多起对抗事件，也并不代表乌克兰全国会立刻爆发大规模社会暴乱。国内仍有相当数量愿意投身作战的群体。然而，民间忍耐的边界正在持续被压缩，战争拖得越久，基层冲突爆发的概率便越高。单纯加重对逃避兵役行为的处罚，无法从根本上解决制度公信力流失的问题。征兵乱象持续发酵的同一时期，被解除国防部长职务的费多罗夫，发布长篇视频，直指乌克兰公共资金使用存在问题，部分采购环节存在腐败漏洞，这些问题将削弱前线部队的作战能力。

五 | 他进一步提出，不能因为处在战争状态，就无限期推迟总统选举，需要设计可行方案，保障前线士兵、海外难民都能够参与投票。不少人看到这番表态，直接解读为一旦开始选举，泽连斯基就当不成总统了。我们需要回到乌克兰现行法律框架看待这件事，乌克兰战时戒严相关法律规定，戒严实施期间，不得举行总统和议会选举。泽连斯基的总统任期本应于2024年5月届满，正是依靠战时状态才得以继续履职。想要启动大选，要么结束戒严，要么修改现行法律，两件事都需要议会完成复杂的立法流程。费多罗夫本人也没有直接宣布参选，只是呼吁研究选举的举行办法。

六 | 泽连斯基则回应称，目前没有任何外部伙伴，可以拿出一个完整且安全的战时选举执行方案。

七 | 导弹袭击威胁遍布国土，数百万难民散落在境外，前线大量士兵分散在各个阵地，投票组织、人员安全，每一项都是难以落地的现实难题。那么，费多罗夫的公开表态，是否完全出于维护国家利益的公心？现实中的政坛博弈，显然不能仅以单一动机来判断。

八 | 他在泽连斯基政府当中任职多年，曾经深度参与数字化改革和国防采购工作，拥有自己的支持者群体。费多罗夫被解职之后，乌克兰国内还出现过要求他复职的民众集会。在此背景下，公开抨击腐败、呼吁举行大选，可以帮他积累政治声望。

九 | 但呼吁举行选举，和真正完成权力更替，中间隔着法律、安全、议会表决等门槛。前防长的公开喊话，放大了内部矛盾，但不等于马上就可以开启总统更替的进程。如今，乌克兰内部问题堆积，不少人习惯性地认为美国会出面摆平危机。我们不妨往下思考，美国究竟有没有意愿、有没有能力介入乌克兰的内部政治与社会事务。美国对乌克兰的援助，核心目标在于消耗对手、维护自身在欧亚地区的地缘利益。美方愿意提供武器与财政物资，却并不打算深度卷入乌克兰国内的政治洗牌或社会矛盾调解。美国可以为一场对外战争提供物资支持，却很难替另一个国家平息由征兵引发的民间冲突，也无法直接修改他国法律或强行推动战时大选。当前，美国自身需同时应对中东等多处热点，能够分配给乌克兰的外交与政治资源已明显收缩。美方可以继续提供军火，却不会为乌克兰内部的社会动荡兜底。

十 | 一旦问题属于乌克兰国内治理范畴，美方介入的意愿便会大幅下降。所谓“美国不救”，并非彻底切断援助，而是不会出手替基辅化解社会撕裂、政坛内讧这类内生性难题。接下来，乌克兰仍将持续面对兵员缺口、资金使用争议与政坛派系博弈相互交织的局面。无论是征兵制度的改良，还是政治程序的调整，都必须在战争的巨大约束下进行。所有矛盾的最终走向，不仅取决于战场上的胜负，同样取决于乌克兰能否有效处理好本国境内堆积起来的各类现实问题。